Prepared by AMSR using the Archive
Resource for AQA 3.1.2.2 — Elections & Referendums (AMSR Edition)
These General Election and Referendum case studies have been prepared for AQA A-Level Students from AMSR NOP and MORI reports on the Elections, produced at the time, plus two detailed analyses of the AMSR Archive Content produced by AMSR Volunteers: “Polling in UK Elections Since 1945” (focused on Voting Behaviour and the Media) & “Why Polls Go Wrong”. Please read the Technical Appendix at the end of this document for an explanation of the AMSR Archive, why this resource does not cover all elections, and how we have reported the others. And links to the two in-depth documents, and Election Reports.
1945 General Election — Labour Landslide
Wider Context
- Polling was in its infancy (British Gallup).
- Newspapers published polls but “no one believed” Gallup’s prediction of a Labour victory.
- Post‑war reconstruction and social reform dominated.
Campaign Techniques
- Early use of national polling; limited media coverage.
- Labour framed the campaign around welfare and reconstruction.
Issue Salience
- War leadership vs peace‑time planning.
- Public desire for social security and change.
Polling & Media
- Gallup predicted Labour correctly; newspapers doubted it.
- Polling disliked but vindicated.
Outcome
- Labour won decisively; polls proved accurate.
1950 General Election — Narrow Labour Win
Wider Context
- Post‑war austerity; rising Conservative confidence.
- Polling becoming more common.
Campaign Techniques
- Daily Express entered polling.
- Newspapers used polls to frame expectations.
Issue Salience
- Economy, rationing, post‑war recovery.
Polling & Media
- 2 of 3 polls called the wrong winner.
- Polling errors small (≈2%).
Outcome
- Labour won narrowly; polls close but imperfect.
1951 General Election — Conservative Victory (Votes vs Seats)
Wider Context
- Labour called election seeking larger majority.
- Public fatigue with austerity.
Campaign Techniques
- Growing use of polls by newspapers.
Issue Salience
- Economy, rearmament, rationing.
Polling & Media
- All four polls wrongly forecast Conservatives winning most votes.
- Labour won more votes but fewer seats.
Outcome
- Conservatives formed government; polls underestimated Labour.
1955 General Election — Conservative Stability
Wider Context
- Post‑austerity optimism.
- No TV election coverage before 1955.
Campaign Techniques
- Traditional press‑based campaigning.
Issue Salience
- Economic stability.
Polling & Media
- Polling errors <1%.
Outcome
- Conservative victory; polls accurate.
1959 General Election — Conservative Confidence
Wider Context
- Rising living standards.
- Growing media interest in polls.
Campaign Techniques
- Polls “stirred up interest” and increased participation.
Issue Salience
- Economy, prosperity.
Polling & Media
- Daily Express doubted its own poll.
- Polls showed narrowing Tory lead; City reacted to poll shifts.
Outcome
- Conservative win; polls broadly accurate.
Technical Appendix
About the Archive (AMSR)
The Archive of Market and Social Research (AMSR) preserves the original reports, surveys, and polling data produced by Britain’s major research organisations from the 1940s onwards, offering an unparalleled record of how public opinion was measured, reported, and understood at the time. Because the Archive contains the contemporary documents — Gallup, NOP, MORI, and others — it shows elections, referendums, and polling debates exactly as they were experienced, without hindsight or reinterpretation. This makes AMSR uniquely valuable for A-Level Politics: students can see how campaigns unfolded, how issues rose and fell in importance, how voters behaved, and how polls influenced expectations. The Archive also reveals why polls sometimes go wrong, how methods evolved, and how media reporting shaped political understanding. In short, AMSR provides the evidence base that allows students to evaluate elections, referendums, voting behaviour, and the reliability of political information using authentic historical sources.
Why AMSR does not cover all Elections
This AMSR teaching resource draws on two archive documents: Polling in UK Elections Since 1945 (which isfocussed on Voting Behaviour and the Media) and Why Polls Go Wrong. These sources provide detailed historical context, polling evidence, and campaign analysis for UK General Elections from 1945 to 2015. Since these documents were produced the Archive does have a complete summary of the 2024 Election prepared by Ipsos especially for the Archive. To maintain academic accuracy and ensure all content is grounded in verifiable AMSR evidence, this resource therefore covers uses AMSR sources for elections where we have them and uses publiclyavailable Ipsos, BES, BBC/ITV exit-poll findings, and ONS turnout statistics in other cases This is always clearly stated in the introduction to the particular Election/Referendum
See also the following links: