Prepared by AMSR using the Archive
Resource for AQA 3.1.2.2 — Elections & Referendums (AMSR Edition)
These General Election and Referendum case studies have been prepared for AQA A-Level Students from AMSR NOP and MORI reports on the Elections, produced at the time, plus 2 detailed analyses of the AMSR Archive Content produced by AMSR Volunteers: “Polling in UK Elections Since 1945” (focussed on Voting Behaviour and the Media) & “Why Polls Go Wrong”. Please read the Technical Appendix at the end of this document for an explanation of the AMSR Archive, why this resource does not cover all elections, and how we have reported the others. And links to the 2 in-depth documents, and Election Reports.
1945 General Election — Labour Landslide (1)
Wider Context
- Polling was in its infancy (British Gallup).
- Newspapers published polls but “no one believed” Gallup’s prediction of a Labour victory.
- Post‑war reconstruction and social reform dominated.
Campaign Techniques
- Early use of national polling; limited media coverage.
- Labour framed the campaign around welfare and reconstruction.
Issue Salience
- War leadership vs peace‑time planning.
- Public desire for social security and change.
Polling & Media
- Gallup predicted Labour correctly; newspapers doubted it.
- Polling disliked but vindicated.
Outcome
- Labour won decisively; polls proved accurate.
1950 General Election — Narrow Labour Win (1)
Wider Context
- Post‑war austerity; rising Conservative confidence.
- Polling becoming more common.
Campaign Techniques
- Daily Express entered polling.
- Newspapers used polls to frame expectations.
Issue Salience
- Economy, rationing, post‑war recovery.
Polling & Media
- 2 of 3 polls called the wrong winner.
- Polling errors small (≈2%).
Outcome
- Labour won narrowly; polls close but imperfect.
1951 General Election — Conservative Victory (Votes vs Seats) (1)
Wider Context
- Labour called election seeking larger majority.
- Public fatigue with austerity.
Campaign Techniques
- Growing use of polls by newspapers.
Issue Salience
- Economy, rearmament, rationing.
Polling & Media
- All four polls wrongly forecast Conservatives winning most votes.
- Labour won more votes but fewer seats.
Outcome
- Conservatives formed government; polls underestimated Labour.
1955 General Election — Conservative Stability (1)
Wider Context
- Post‑austerity optimism.
- No TV election coverage before 1955.
Campaign Techniques
- Traditional press‑based campaigning.
Issue Salience
- Economic stability.
Polling & Media
- Polling errors <1%.
Outcome
- Conservative victory; polls accurate.
1959 General Election — Conservative Confidence (1)
Wider Context
- Rising living standards.
- Growing media interest in polls.
Campaign Techniques
- Polls “stirred up interest” and increased participation.
Issue Salience
- Economy, prosperity.
Polling & Media
- Daily Express doubted its own poll.
- Polls showed narrowing Tory lead; City reacted to poll shifts.
Outcome
- Conservative win; polls broadly accurate.