Prepared by AMSR using the Archive
These General Election and Referendum case studies have been prepared for AQA A-Level Students from AMSR NOP and MORI reports on the Elections, produced at the time, plus 2 detailed analyses of the AMSR Archive Content produced by AMSR Volunteers: “Polling in UK Elections Since 1945” (focussed on Voting Behaviour and the Media) & “Why Polls Go Wrong”.
1970 General Election — Surprise Conservative Victory (1)
Wider Context
- Volatile public opinion (20% swings).
- Cost of living crisis.
Campaign Techniques
- Polls dominated media coverage.
- ORC continued interviewing until day before election.
Issue Salience
- Cost of living; economic competence.
Polling & Media
- All polls except ORC predicted Labour.
- “Late swing” + Labour abstention + youth turnout collapse.
Outcome
- Conservatives won unexpectedly.
- Classic polling failure (see Why Polls Go Wrong).
February 1974 General Election — Hung Parliament (1)
Wider Context
- Miners’ strike; Three-Day Week.
- “Who governs Britain?” campaign.
Campaign Techniques
- Six polling organisations; heavy media use.
Issue Salience
- Industrial relations; economic stability.
Polling & Media
- Confused polling picture; overestimated Liberals.
- 58% saw polls; 48% didn’t know what polls showed.
Outcome
- Conservatives won more votes; Labour won more seats.
AMSR LINK: NOP Political Bulletin 1974 February – Page 1 – NOP Reports – The AMSR Online Archive
October 1974 General Election — Narrow Labour Majority (1)
Wider Context
- Wilson sought working majority.
Campaign Techniques
- 40,000 interviews; polls clustered.
Issue Salience
- Stability; economic management.
Polling & Media
- Polls predicted Labour but overestimated lead.
Outcome
- Labour won small majority.
AMSR LINK:NOP Political Bulletin 1974 October – Page 2 – NOP Reports – The AMSR Online Archive
1979 General Election — Conservative Victory (1)
Wider Context
- Winter of Discontent.
- Leadership changes (Callaghan, Thatcher).
Campaign Techniques
- First use of telephone polling.
Issue Salience
- Economy; industrial relations.
Polling & Media
- Polls accurate within 1%.
Outcome
- Conservative win.
Technical Appendix
About the Archive (AMSR)
The Archive of Market and Social Research (AMSR) preserves the original reports, surveys, and polling data produced by Britain’s major research organisations from the 1940s onwards, offering an unparalleled record of how public opinion was measured, reported, and understood at the time. Because the Archive contains the contemporarydocuments — Gallup, NOP, MORI, and others — it shows elections, referendums, and polling debates exactly as they were experienced, without hindsight or reinterpretation. This makes AMSR uniquely valuable for A-Level Politics: students can see how campaigns unfolded, how issues rose and fell in importance, how voters behaved, and how polls influenced expectations. The Archive also reveals why polls sometimes go wrong, how methods evolved, and how media reporting shaped political understanding. In short, AMSR provides the evidence base that allows students to evaluate elections, referendums, voting behaviour, and the reliability of political information using authentic historical sources.
Why AMSR does not cover all Elections
This AMSR teaching resource draws on two archive documents: Polling in UK Elections Since 1945 (which isfocussed on Voting Behaviour and the Media) and Why Polls Go Wrong. These sources provide detailed historical context, polling evidence, and campaign analysis for UK General Elections from 1945 to 2015. Since these documents were produced the Archive does have a complete summary of the 2024 Election prepared by Ipsos especially for the Archive. To maintain academic accuracy and ensure all content is grounded in verifiable AMSR evidence, this resource therefore covers uses AMSR sources for elections where we have them and uses publiclyavailable Ipsos, BES, BBC/ITV exit-poll findings, and ONS turnout statistics in other cases This is always clearly stated in the introduction to the particular Election/Referendum