Prepared by AMSR using the Archive
These General Election and Referendum case studies have been prepared for AQA A-Level Students from AMSR NOP and MORI reports on the Elections, produced at the time, plus 2 detailed analyses of the AMSR Archive Content produced by AMSR Volunteers: “Polling in UK Elections Since 1945” (focused on Voting Behaviour and the Media) & “Why Polls Go Wrong”. Please read the Technical Appendix at the end of this document for an explanation of the AMSR Archive, why this resource does not cover all elections, and how we have reported the others. And links to the 2 in-depth documents, links to the actual Election Reports are included in the text.
2010 General Election — Hung Parliament & Coalition Politics
Note: AMSR does not hold an NOP or MORI BPO newsletter for 2010. This analysis uses publicly available Ipsos/MORI commentary, BES data, BBC/ITV exit-poll findings, and ONS turnout statistics.
Wider Context
The 2010 election took place in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, rising unemployment, and the parliamentary expenses scandal, which severely damaged trust in MPs and political institutions.
Labour, led by Gordon Brown, had been in power for 13 years and was struggling with economic fallout, leadership image problems, and internal divisions. The Conservatives under David Cameron presented themselves as modern, compassionate, and economically responsible. The Liberal Democrats under Nick Clegg hoped to break the two-party system, boosted by strong early debate performances.
Public mood was shaped by:
- economic insecurity
- anger over MPs’ expenses
- declining trust in government
- interest in political reform
- desire for change after long Labour rule
Campaign Techniques
This was the first UK election to feature televised leaders’ debates, which transformed the campaign dynamic. Clegg’s strong performance in the first debate triggered the media narrative of “Cleggmania”, temporarily boosting Liberal Democrat polling numbers.
Labour ran a defensive campaign focused on economic competence and protecting public services. The Conservatives emphasised deficit reduction, welfare reform, and leadership renewal. The Liberal Democrats campaigned on political reform, civil liberties, and opposition to tuition fees.
Social media played a larger role than in previous elections, especially among younger voters.
Issue Salience
Ipsos/MORI and BES tracking showed the most important issues were:
- The economy and deficit reduction
- Unemployment
- NHS/health care
- Immigration
- Education and tuition fees
- Trust and political reform
- Crime
The expenses scandal made trust and political integrity unusually salient, benefiting the Liberal Democrats.
Polling & Media
Polls during the campaign showed:
- Conservatives consistently ahead
- Labour declining but still competitive
- Liberal Democrats surging after the first debate, then falling back
Because AMSR does not hold a MORI BPO newsletter for 2010, this analysis uses publicly available Ipsos/MORI releases and BES findings.
Ipsos/MORI noted:
“The debates reshaped the campaign but did not fundamentally alter the underlying electoral arithmetic.”
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll accurately predicted a hung parliament, one of the most significant methodological successes in UK polling history.
Turnout rose to 65%, reversing the decline seen in 2001 and 2005.
Voting Behaviour
Age
- Younger voters: Liberal Democrats strongest
- Middle-aged voters: Conservative strength
- Older voters: Conservative dominance
Class
- AB/C1: Conservative lead
- C2/DE: Labour retained significant support but lost ground compared with 2005
Housing tenure
- Owner-occupiers: Conservative majority
- Council/HA tenants: Labour strongest
- Private renters: Liberal Democrats competitive
Leadership
- Cameron: seen as modern and competent
- Brown: respected on economic competence but unpopular personally
- Clegg: popular among younger and university-educated voters
Tactical voting
- Anti-Conservative tactical voting persisted in Labour–Lib Dem marginals
- Anti-Labour tactical voting increased in Conservative–Lib Dem marginals
- Liberal Democrat surge did not translate into seats due to vote distribution
Outcome
The election produced a hung parliament (official certified result). The Conservatives won the most seats but fell short of a majority. Labour lost significant ground but remained the second largest party. The Liberal Democrats increased their vote share but lost seats due to electoral geography.
After negotiations, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats formed the 2010–2015 Coalition Government, the first peacetime coalition since the 1930s.
This election marked the beginning of a new era of multiparty competition, volatility, and political realignment.
Key AMSR Insights
- Debates matter, but not decisively: Cleggmania reshaped media narratives but did not fundamentally change the final vote.
- Trust was central: The expenses scandal damaged all parties but boosted the Liberal Democrats among reform-minded voters.
- Economic competence dominated: Cameron and Osborne’s deficit-reduction message resonated with middle-aged and older voters.
- Labour’s coalition weakened: Brown’s leadership ratings and economic fallout reduced Labour’s support across key groups.
- Polling accuracy: The exit poll was a major methodological success, correctly predicting a hung parliament.
- Multiparty dynamics: The Liberal Democrats’ vote was broad but shallow, illustrating the structural difficulty of converting national support into seats.
- Turnout recovery: Rising turnout signalled renewed political engagement after years of decline.
2015 General Election — Polling Failure & Conservative Majority
Note AMSR does not hold an NOP or MORI BPO newsletter for 2015. This analysis uses publicly available Ipsos/MORI commentary, BES data, BBC/ITV exit-poll findings, and ONS turnout statistics.
Wider Context
The 2015 election took place in a period of multiparty fragmentation, economic recovery after the financial crisis, and intense debate over austerity, welfare reform, and immigration.
The Conservatives under David Cameron campaigned on economic competence, deficit reduction, and stability. Labour under Ed Miliband focused on living standards, inequality, and protecting public services, but faced doubts about leadership and economic credibility. The Liberal Democrats under Nick Clegg were defending their record in coalition, suffering heavy losses in trust after tuition fees. The SNP under Nicola Sturgeon surged dramatically after the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, reshaping the electoral map.
Public mood was shaped by:
- economic insecurity
- debates over austerity
- rising nationalism in Scotland
- declining trust in the Liberal Democrats
- concerns about immigration and EU membership
Campaign Techniques
The Conservatives ran a disciplined, message-tight campaign centred on “long-term economic plan”, leadership stability, and warnings about a Labour–SNP coalition. Labour emphasised living standards, NHS funding, and fairness, but struggled to counter Conservative attacks on economic credibility.
The Liberal Democrats campaigned on moderation and coalition stability, but their vote collapsed in university towns and urban seats. The SNP ran an energetic, optimistic campaign that mobilised post-referendum activism and framed Westminster politics as broken.
Media coverage was dominated by:
- austerity vs investment
- leadership credibility
- the SNP surge
- coalition speculation
- immigration and EU membership
Issue Salience
Ipsos/MORI and BES tracking showed the most important issues were:
- The economy and deficit reduction
- Immigration
- NHS/health care
- Welfare and social security
- Education and tuition fees
- EU membership
- Scottish independence (in Scotland)
Economic competence remained the decisive issue for many swing voters.
Polling & Media
This election produced one of the most significant polling failures in modern British history.
Throughout the campaign, almost all pollsters showed:
- Conservatives and Labour neck-and-neck
- Liberal Democrats in steep decline
- SNP surging in Scotland
- UKIP strong but seat-weak
In reality, the Conservatives won a clear lead.
Because AMSR does not hold a MORI BPO newsletter for 2015, this analysis uses publicly available Ipsos/MORI releases and BES findings.
Ipsos/MORI noted:
“The polls overstated Labour and understated the Conservatives due to sampling error and differential turnout.”
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll shocked commentators by projecting a Conservative lead and near-majority — and was later proven accurate.
Key polling problems identified by the official inquiry:
- Sampling bias (too many politically engaged respondents)
- Turnout error (Labour supporters less likely to vote)
- Late swing (small but real movement to Conservatives)
- Mode effects (online vs phone differences)
Turnout rose slightly to 66%.
Voting Behaviour
Age
- Younger voters: Labour and SNP strongest
- Middle-aged voters: Conservative strength
- Older voters: Conservative dominance
Class
- AB/C1: Conservative lead
- C2/DE: Labour competitive but weaker than expected
Housing tenure
- Owner-occupiers: Conservative majority
- Council/HA tenants: Labour strongest
- Private renters: Labour and SNP competitive
Leadership
- Cameron: seen as stable and competent
- Miliband: improved ratings but still behind Cameron
- Clegg: trust collapse after coalition decisions
- Sturgeon: extremely popular in Scotland
Tactical voting
- Anti-Conservative tactical voting weakened
- Anti-Labour tactical voting strengthened in England due to SNP fears
- SNP tactical consolidation produced a near-wipeout of Labour and Liberal Democrats in Scotland
Outcome
The Conservatives won a majority government (official certified result). Labour suffered losses in England and a near-wipeout in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats collapsed from 57 seats to 8. The SNP won 56 of 59 Scottish seats, reshaping UK politics. UKIP won 1 seat but a large national vote share.
The result set the stage for the 2016 EU referendum, as Cameron fulfilled his pledge to hold a vote on EU membership.
Key AMSR Insights
- Polling failure: The 2015 election was a major methodological failure, driven by sampling bias and turnout error.
- Economic competence: Cameron’s message resonated strongly with middle-aged and older voters.
- Leadership effects: Cameron’s stability advantage over Miliband mattered more than policy detail.
- SNP realignment: Scotland underwent a dramatic political transformation, with nationalist consolidation replacing Labour dominance.
- Liberal Democrat collapse: Tuition fees and coalition decisions destroyed trust among key voter groups.
- Tactical voting shifts: Anti-Labour tactical voting increased due to fears of SNP influence.
- Exit poll accuracy: The 2015 exit poll was a major methodological success, correctly predicting a Conservative majority.
2017 General Election — Unexpected Hung Parliament & Brexit Realignment
Note: AMSR does not have a source for this election. This analysis uses publicly available Ipsos, BES, BBC/ITV exit-poll findings, and ONS turnout statistics.
Wider Context
Theresa May called a snap election seeking a larger Conservative majority to strengthen her position in the Brexit negotiations. At the start of the campaign, the Conservatives held a 20-point lead in most polls.
Labour under Jeremy Corbyn entered the campaign with low personal ratings and internal party conflict, but with strong grassroots mobilisation and a message focused on public services, inequality, and anti-austerity.
Public mood was shaped by:
- Brexit polarisation
- austerity fatigue
- rising concerns about public services
- debates over leadership competence
- two major terrorist attacks during the campaign
The election rapidly became a contest between Brexit stability (Conservatives) and anti-austerity renewal (Labour).
Campaign Techniques
The Conservatives ran a highly centralised campaign focused on “strong and stable leadership”, Brexit competence, and security. However, the manifesto’s social care policy (“dementia tax”) triggered a backlash and undermined May’s message discipline.
Labour ran a high-energy, ground-mobilisation campaign, using rallies, social media, and a detailed manifesto that resonated with younger and economically insecure voters.
The Liberal Democrats campaigned on a second EU referendum but struggled to cut through. The SNP defended its 2015 dominance but faced fatigue over independence.
Social media played a decisive role, with Labour outperforming all parties in digital reach and engagement.
Issue Salience
Ipsos and BES tracking showed the most important issues were:
- Brexit
- NHS/health care
- Education and tuition fees
- Austerity and public spending
- Terrorism and security
- Housing
- Leadership competence
Brexit dominated the campaign, but domestic issues (NHS, austerity) drove Labour’s late surge.
Polling & Media
The 2017 election produced a major polling error, though smaller than 2015.
Early polls showed a huge Conservative lead, but Labour gained steadily throughout the campaign.
Key polling dynamics:
- Late swing: significant movement towards Labour in the final weeks
- Youth turnout surge: underestimated by many pollsters
- Mode effects: phone polls showed larger Conservative leads than online polls
- Leadership effects: May’s ratings fell sharply; Corbyn’s rose during the campaign
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll shocked commentators by projecting a hung parliament, which proved accurate.
Ipsos noted:
“The Conservative lead narrowed dramatically during the campaign, driven by rising support for Labour among younger and economically insecure voters.”
Turnout rose to 68.8%, the highest since 1997.
Voting Behaviour
Age
- Under 30: Labour landslide
- 30–44: Labour lead
- 45–64: Conservative lead
- 65+: Conservative dominance
This was one of the most age-polarised elections in modern UK history.
Class
- AB/C1: Conservative lead
- C2/DE: Labour strong, especially among younger working-class voters
Housing tenure
- Private renters: Labour strongest
- Council/HA tenants: Labour dominant
- Owner-occupiers: Conservative majority
Leadership
- May: perceived as competent but inflexible
- Corbyn: polarising but energised younger voters and activists
Tactical voting
- Anti-Conservative tactical voting increased in university towns and cities
- Anti-SNP tactical voting strengthened in Scotland
- Pro-Labour tactical voting emerged among Remain voters
Outcome
The Conservatives lost their majority and formed a confidence-and-supply arrangement with the DUP (official certified result). Labour gained seats and vote share, achieving its best result since 2005. The SNP lost seats but remained dominant in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats made modest gains.
The result reshaped expectations about Labour’s electability and exposed weaknesses in Conservative campaign strategy.
Key AMSR Insights
- Late swing: Labour’s surge in the final weeks was one of the most dramatic in modern elections.
- Issue salience shift: Brexit dominated early polling, but NHS and austerity drove Labour’s rise.
- Leadership effects: May’s declining ratings and manifesto backlash mattered more than initial polling leads.
- Youth mobilisation: High turnout among younger voters was underestimated by pollsters.
- Polling error: Polls overstated Conservative support and understated Labour, though less severely than in 2015.
- Tactical voting: Anti-Conservative tactical voting strengthened in urban and university seats.
- Digital campaigning: Labour’s social-media strategy significantly expanded its reach among younger voters.
2019 General Election — Brexit Realignment & Conservative Landslide
Note: AMSR does not have a source for the 2019 Election. This analysis uses publicly available Ipsos, BES, BBC/ITV exit-poll findings, and ONS turnout statistics.
Wider Context
The 2019 election was dominated by Brexit deadlock, parliamentary gridlock, and public frustration with political stalemate.
Boris Johnson, who became Prime Minister in July 2019, sought a mandate to “Get Brexit Done” after repeated parliamentary defeats and the failure to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. Labour under Jeremy Corbyn campaigned on radical domestic reform but struggled with internal divisions, Brexit ambiguity, and declining trust among older and working-class voters.
Public mood was shaped by:
- Brexit polarisation
- fatigue with parliamentary stalemate
- concerns about public services
- debates over leadership competence
- rising nationalism in Scotland
- trust and antisemitism controversies within Labour
This was the most Brexit-driven election in modern UK history.
Campaign Techniques
The Conservatives ran a highly disciplined, slogan-driven campaign centred on Brexit delivery, leadership clarity, and investment in public services. Their message discipline (“Get Brexit Done”) was unprecedented in its consistency.
Labour ran a policy-heavy campaign, offering large-scale investment, nationalisation, and social reform. However, its Brexit position (“negotiate a new deal, then hold a referendum”) proved difficult to communicate.
The Liberal Democrats campaigned on revoking Article 50, appealing to strong Remain voters but alienating others. The SNP campaigned on Scottish interests, anti-Brexit sentiment, and a second independence referendum.
Digital campaigning was intense, with micro-targeting and rapid rebuttal used extensively by all parties.
Issue Salience
Ipsos and BES tracking showed the most important issues were:
- Brexit (dominant throughout the campaign)
- NHS/health care
- The economy
- Leadership competence
- Crime and policing
- Trust and integrity
- Scottish independence (in Scotland)
Brexit overshadowed almost all other issues, shaping voting behaviour more strongly than class, age, or traditional party loyalties.
Polling & Media
Polls throughout the campaign consistently showed:
- Conservatives ahead
- Labour behind but improving slightly
- Liberal Democrats declining after early momentum
- SNP dominant in Scotland
Because AMSR does not hold a MORI BPO newsletter for 2019, this analysis uses publicly available Ipsos releases and BES findings.
Ipsos noted:
“Brexit identity replaced traditional party identity for many voters.”
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll accurately projected a large Conservative majority, one of the strongest exit-poll performances in UK history.
Key polling dynamics:
- Brexit identity (Leave vs Remain) became the strongest predictor of vote choice
- Leadership ratings strongly favoured Johnson over Corbyn
- Late swing towards Conservatives among undecided Leave voters
- Tactical voting among Remain voters was fragmented and inconsistent
Turnout fell to 67.3%, lower than 2017.
Voting Behaviour
Age
- Under 30: Labour strongest
- 30–44: Labour competitive
- 45–64: Conservative lead
- 65+: Conservative dominance
Age polarisation remained high, but Brexit identity was even stronger.
Class
- AB/C1: Conservative lead
- C2/DE: Conservative surge among Leave voters, reversing decades of Labour dominance
Housing tenure
- Private renters: Labour strongest
- Council/HA tenants: Labour lead but reduced
- Owner-occupiers: Conservative majority
Leadership
- Johnson: seen as decisive and clear on Brexit
- Corbyn: low trust ratings, concerns over leadership and antisemitism
- Swinson: early momentum collapsed after revoke-Article-50 pledge
Tactical voting
- Remain tactical voting was fragmented, split between Labour, Liberal Democrats, and SNP
- Leave tactical voting consolidated strongly behind Conservatives
- SNP tactical consolidation produced major gains in Scotland
Outcome
The Conservatives won a large majority (official certified result). Labour suffered its worst result since 1935, losing many traditional working-class seats in the Midlands and North (“Red Wall”). The Liberal Democrats gained votes but lost seats, including their leader’s. The SNP won 48 of 59 Scottish seats, strengthening calls for a second independence referendum.
The result enabled the UK to leave the EU on 31 January 2020 and marked a major political realignment based on Brexit identity.
Key AMSR Insights
- Brexit identity replaced class identity: Leave voters consolidated behind Conservatives; Remain voters split.
- Leadership effects: Johnson’s clarity vs Corbyn’s trust deficit was decisive.
- Polling accuracy: Polls were broadly correct; the exit poll was highly accurate.
- Realignment: The collapse of Labour’s Red Wall seats marked a historic shift in working-class voting behaviour.
- Tactical voting failure: Remain tactical voting was inconsistent and insufficient to counter Leave consolidation.
- Issue dominance: Brexit overshadowed all other issues, shaping turnout, tactical behaviour, and party choice.
- Digital campaigning: Micro-targeting and message discipline played a major role in Conservative success.
Technical Appendix
About the Archive (AMSR)
The Archive of Market and Social Research (AMSR) preserves the original reports, surveys, and polling data produced by Britain’s major research organisations from the 1940s onwards, offering an unparalleled record of how public opinion was measured, reported, and understood at the time. Because the Archive contains the contemporary documents — Gallup, NOP, MORI, and others — it shows elections, referendums, and polling debates exactly as they were experienced, without hindsight or reinterpretation. This makes AMSR uniquely valuable for A-Level Politics: students can see how campaigns unfolded, how issues rose and fell in importance, how voters behaved, and how polls influenced expectations. The Archive also reveals why polls sometimes go wrong, how methods evolved, and how media reporting shaped political understanding. In short, AMSR provides the evidence base that allows students to evaluate elections, referendums, voting behaviour, and the reliability of political information using authentic historical sources.
Why AMSR does not cover all Elections
This AMSR teaching resource draws on two archive documents: Polling in UK Elections Since 1945 (which isfocussed on Voting Behaviour and the Media) and Why Polls Go Wrong. These sources provide detailed historical context, polling evidence, and campaign analysis for UK General Elections from 1945 to 2015. Since these documents were produced the Archive does have a complete summary of the 2024 Election prepared by Ipsos especially for the Archive. To maintain academic accuracy and ensure all content is grounded in verifiable AMSR evidence, this resource therefore covers uses AMSR sources for elections where we have them and uses publiclyavailable Ipsos, BES, BBC/ITV exit-poll findings, and ONS turnout statistics in other cases This is always clearly stated in the introduction to the particular Election/Referendum. AMSR Links are given in the text where we have them
See also the following links: