Prepared by AMSR using the Archive
These General Election and Referendum case studies have been prepared for AQA A-Level Students from AMSR NOP and MORI reports on the Elections, produced at the time, plus 2 detailed analyses of the AMSR Archive Content produced by AMSR Volunteers: “Polling in UK Elections Since 1945” (focussed on Voting Behaviour and the Media) & “Why Polls Go Wrong”. Please read the Technical Appendix at the end of this document for an explanation of the AMSR Archive, why this resource does not cover all elections, and how we have reported the others. And links to the 2 in-depth documents. Links to Election reports are given in the text where we have them.
2024 General Election — Labour Landslide & Conservative Collapse
Link to Ipsos 2024 Election Report. This analysis also uses publicly available Ipsos, BES, BBC/ITV exit-poll findings, and ONS turnout statistics.
Wider Context
The 2024 election followed years of political instability: Brexit fallout, COVID-19, the cost-of-living crisis, and multiple changes of Prime Minister. Rishi Sunak called a summer election seeking a renewed mandate after Conservative support had fallen sharply.
Labour under Keir Starmer campaigned on stability, competence, and economic responsibility. The Liberal Democrats targeted Conservative seats in the South. Reform UK under Nigel Farage surged late in the campaign, reshaping right-of-centre voting. The SNP faced declining support after leadership turmoil.
Public mood was shaped by:
- economic insecurity
- NHS pressures
- frustration with political instability
- declining trust in the Conservatives
- interest in change after 14 years of Conservative government
Campaign Techniques
Labour ran a disciplined, low-risk campaign, emphasising stability, competence, and “national renewal”. The Conservatives struggled with message clarity and internal division. Reform UK used social media aggressively, appealing to disaffected Conservative voters. The Liberal Democrats focused on hyper-targeted constituency campaigns.
Media coverage centred on:
- cost-of-living pressures
- NHS waiting lists
- immigration
- leadership competence
- tactical voting in Conservative–Labour and Conservative–Lib Dem marginals
Issue Salience
Ipsos and BES tracking showed the most important issues were:
- The economy and cost of living
- NHS/health care
- Immigration
- Leadership competence
- Housing
- Trust and integrity
Economic insecurity and NHS pressures dominated voter concerns.
Polling & Media
Polls throughout the campaign consistently showed:
- Labour well ahead
- Conservatives declining
- Reform UK rising
- Liberal Democrats competitive in Conservative seats
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll accurately projected a large Labour majority.
Ipsos noted:
“The desire for change was the strongest driver of vote choice.”
Key polling dynamics:
- Conservative → Reform churn was substantial
- Labour’s lead was stable throughout the campaign
- Tactical voting among anti-Conservative voters was widespread
- Turnout fell, especially among younger voters and disaffected Conservatives
Turnout was low, around 60%.
Voting Behaviour
Age
- Under 30: Labour strongest
- 30–44: Labour lead
- 45–64: Labour competitive
- 65+: Conservative lead but reduced
Class
- AB/C1: Labour lead
- C2/DE: Labour strong; Reform UK competitive among older working-class voters
Housing tenure
- Private renters: Labour strongest
- Council/HA tenants: Labour dominant
- Owner-occupiers: Conservative lead but sharply reduced
Leadership
- Starmer: seen as competent and stable
- Sunak: seen as competent but unable to overcome party fatigue
- Farage: popular among disaffected Conservative voters
Tactical voting
- Anti-Conservative tactical voting was widespread
- Labour and Liberal Democrats both benefited
- Reform UK vote was broad but inefficient in seat conversion
Outcome
Labour won a large majority (official certified result). The Conservatives suffered a historic collapse, losing many traditional strongholds. The Liberal Democrats made major gains in the South and South-West. Reform UK won a small number of seats but a significant national vote share. The SNP lost heavily, with Labour recovering in Scotland.
The result marked a major political realignment and the end of 14 years of Conservative government.
Key AMSR Insights
- Desire for change was the strongest behavioural driver.
- Issue salience (economy, NHS, immigration) aligned with Labour’s message.
- Leadership effects: Starmer’s competence advantage mattered more than policy detail.
- Right-of-centre fragmentation: Conservative → Reform churn weakened the Conservative vote.
- Tactical voting: Anti-Conservative tactical voting was widespread and effective.
- Polling accuracy: Polls and the exit poll were broadly correct.
- Turnout dynamics: Lower turnout reflected disengagement among younger voters and disaffected Conservatives.
Technical Appendix
About the Archive (AMSR)
The Archive of Market and Social Research (AMSR) preserves the original reports, surveys, and polling data produced by Britain’s major research organisations from the 1940s onwards, offering an unparalleled record of how public opinion was measured, reported, and understood at the time. Because the Archive contains the contemporary documents — Gallup, NOP, MORI, and others — it shows elections, referendums, and polling debates exactly as they were experienced, without hindsight or reinterpretation. This makes AMSR uniquely valuable for A-Level Politics: students can see how campaigns unfolded, how issues rose and fell in importance, how voters behaved, and how polls influenced expectations. The Archive also reveals why polls sometimes go wrong, how methods evolved, and how media reporting shaped political understanding. In short, AMSR provides the evidence base that allows students to evaluate elections, referendums, voting behaviour, and the reliability of political information using authentic historical sources.
Why AMSR does not cover all Elections
This AMSR teaching resource draws on two archive documents: Polling in UK Elections Since 1945 (which isfocussed on Voting Behaviour and the Media) and Why Polls Go Wrong. These sources provide detailed historical context, polling evidence, and campaign analysis for UK General Elections from 1945 to 2015. Since these documents were produced the Archive does have a complete summary of the 2024 Election prepared by Ipsos especially for the Archive. To maintain academic accuracy and ensure all content is grounded in verifiable AMSR evidence, this resource therefore covers uses AMSR sources for elections where we have them and uses publiclyavailable Ipsos, BES, BBC/ITV exit-poll findings, and ONS turnout statistics in other cases This is always clearly stated in the introduction to the particular Election/Referendum
See also the following links:
Polling in UK Elections Since 1945