Prepared by AMSR using the Archive
Introduction
This supplementary page preserves all archive‑based material relating to:
- Plaid Cymru
- The Green Party
- The Scottish National Party (SNP)
It is designed for teachers and students who wish to explore these parties in greater depth, especially:
- nationalism and territorial politics
- regional political cultures
- leadership effects
- party competition
- electoral performance
- issue salience
- minor‑party dynamics
The main AQA resource page provides the examinable essentials. This extended page provides the full AMSR archive evidence
Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru is Wales’s principal nationalist party, advocating greater autonomy and, for some supporters, full independence. The AMSR Archive provides rich evidence on Plaid’s electoral performance and the factors shaping its support, especially in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This allows students to explore how Plaid competes within Wales’s party system and how its vote varies across regions, demographics and issues.
Electoral Performance and Regional Variation
NOP surveys show that Plaid’s support has always been highly regionalised. In Wales-wide polling from 1989, Plaid reached 14%, but this headline figure conceals major geographical differences:
- North Wales: Plaid at 29%, making it the second-largest party.
- Mid/West Wales: Plaid around 13%, competing with Labour and the SLD.
- South Wales: Plaid only 8%, reflecting the area’s more Anglicised and industrial character.
Language and cultural identity are central to this pattern. In Welsh-speaking areas, Plaid’s support is dramatically higher: one survey found Plaid backed by 43% of fluent Welsh speakers, compared with 9% among non‑Welsh speakers. Another noted that Plaid’s support “varies hardly at all by age, social class or tenure, but is instead heavily dependent on cultural factors such as fluency in Welsh and country of birth.”
This makes Plaid a clear example of a territorial party, whose electoral strength is tied to cultural and linguistic identity rather than traditional left–right divides.
Competition with Other Parties
Plaid competes most directly with Labour, especially in constituencies where Welsh identity is strong. Switching analysis from the Govan by-election shows that Plaid (and the SNP) often gain from Labour voters: in that contest, 74% of those switching to the nationalist candidate were former Labour voters.
In Wales, NOP’s Pontypridd by-election data shows Plaid attracting:
- Labour defectors
- undecided voters
- some former Alliance voters
This demonstrates Plaid’s ability to mobilise voters dissatisfied with Labour’s performance or attracted by nationalist sentiment.
Plaid also competes with the Conservatives in rural Mid/West Wales, where both parties have pockets of support. In these areas, Plaid’s vote is less tied to class and more to cultural identity, allowing it to challenge the Conservatives among Welsh-speaking rural voters.
Issue Salience and Nationalism
Although Plaid is a nationalist party, nationalism is not always the dominant issue for Welsh voters. In the Pontypridd by-election, only 1% of voters named devolution as their most important issue, even though Plaid voters were more likely to mention it (7%).
This helps explain why Plaid’s vote fluctuates: when cultural or constitutional issues are salient, Plaid performs strongly; when economic issues dominate (Poll Tax, NHS, unemployment), Labour tends to regain ground.
Attitudes to Devolution
Plaid’s constitutional aims align with significant public support for devolution. Wales-wide polling found:
- 49% in favour of an elected Welsh Assembly
- 61% support among Welsh speakers
- 58% support if Scotland already had an Assembly (“Me too” effect)
Among Plaid voters, support for devolution reached 70%, confirming the party’s role as the main vehicle for Welsh autonomy.
Summary
Plaid Cymru’s electoral performance illustrates how identity, language and regional culture shape party competition in Wales. The AMSR Archive shows:
- strong regional variation
- competition primarily with Labour
- cultural rather than class-based voting
- fluctuating support depending on issue salience
- consistent backing for devolution among Plaid voters
This provides a clear case study for students on how smaller territorial parties compete within the UK’s multi-party system.
Link to extended material: For a fuller exploration of Welsh identity, devolution attitudes and regional voting patterns, see the AMSR’s Wales polling collection.
Polls on Wales, 1998-2012 – Page 21 – Opinion Poll Reports – The AMSR Online Archive
The Green Party
1. Emergence and Context
The Green Party’s rise in 1989 occurred during a period of:
- Conservative unpopularity (Poll Tax, NHS reforms, rising inflation)
- Collapse of the SDP–SLD Alliance, creating a “vacuum in the centre left” (NOP)
- Growing salience of environmental issues (MORI shows pollution/environment at 30% as a combined “most + other important issue”).
This context allowed the Greens to become a protest vehicle and a new ideological pole.
“This collapse was confirmed by… the meteoric rise of the Green Party which scored 14% of the vote in the European elections and 10% in our July poll.” (NOP)
2. Electoral Performance
European Elections, June 1989
- NOP pre‑campaign poll: 2%
- Actual result: 15% (MORI exit poll confirmed 14–15%)
- July NOP poll: 10%, overtaking the SLD.
This is one of the most dramatic short‑term rises in modern British minor‑party history.
Why the surge?
NOP identifies:
- Protest voting against the Conservatives
- Collapse of the Alliance
- Low salience of Europe, making voters more willing to experiment
- Environmental issues rising sharply (MORI: pollution/environment 30%)
3. Social Profile of Green Support
NOP and MORI together show:
Age
- Higher among younger voters (NOP: Greens at 4% among 18–34 pre‑campaign; MORI: Greens associated with “extreme” and “sensible policies” — attributes that skew younger).
Class
- MORI perceptual mapping shows Greens drawing support from groups who previously leaned Labour or Alliance, especially ABC1s concerned with environment.
Geography
- NOP exit poll: Greens strongest in South and younger urban areas.
4. Party Image (MORI Perceptual Mapping)
This is where your MORI report is gold — AQA loves image/perception data.
Key emerging attributes of the Greens
MORI finds the Greens associated with:
- “Having sensible policies”
- “Understanding the problems facing Britain”
- “Extreme” (in the sense of radical rather than fringe)
- Sharing Labour’s positive social‑justice attributes (“concerned about people in real need”, “represents all classes”)
- Taking over the ‘radical left’ corner of the perceptual map
“The Green Party’s image… includes ‘having sensible policies’ and ‘understanding the problems facing Britain’.” (MORI)
Impact on other parties
- Greens pull Labour toward the centre, forcing Labour to share its traditional social‑justice image.
- Greens strip the Conservatives of their “professional in its approach” attribute.
- Greens become the new radical pole, replacing Labour’s old “extreme” positioning.
MORI’s five‑party map shows the new triangle as: Conservative vs Green vs Labour/Democrats/SDP
5. Why the Greens Succeeded
Structural factors
- Collapse of the Alliance → space for a new protest party
- Low turnout & low salience → voters more willing to defect
- Environmental issues rising → Greens uniquely positioned
Political factors
- Conservative unpopularity (Poll Tax, inflation, NHS reforms)
- Labour seen as more credible, but still not fully trusted → Greens benefit from protest votes
- Alliance fragmentation → voters searching for a coherent alternative
Campaign factors
- Greens ran a positive, issue‑focused campaign, while Conservatives ran a “mainly negative campaign” (NOP).
6. Why the Greens Failed to Break Through Long‑Term
AMSR reports give early indicators of limits:
- Image still “faint” to half the electorate (MORI)
- Low awareness of European elections (NOP: only 18% knew the date)
- Structural barriers: FPTP, lack of local organisation
- Seen as “extreme” by some voters (MORI)
These are classic points about minor‑party constraints.
7. Impact on the Party System
Both reports show the Greens reshaping competition:
- Labour becomes a centre party (MORI)
- Greens take over the radical left space
- Conservatives lose key image attributes
- Alliance parties squeezed further
“Post‑policy review, Labour as a social democratic party of the centre.” (MORI)
This shows how party competition evolves.
Links to reports:
The Scottish National Party (SNP)
Origins, Identity and Core Purpose
The Scottish National Party (SNP) is a party whose modern identity is built around Scottish self‑government, but the archival record shows that its support base has historically been heterogeneous, combining long‑standing nationalists with voters motivated by specific political events, dissatisfaction with Labour, and reactions to UK‑wide policy changes.
In the late 1980s, NOP’s Political, Social & Economic Review captured a moment of rapid SNP growth. The 1988 Govan by‑election exit poll demonstrated the party’s ability to mobilise both core supporters and tactical switchers. Only 27% of SNP voters had backed the party at the previous general election, while 74% were former Labour voters. As the report notes, “only 27% of current SNP voters also voted SNP at the last election… 74% of those who switched to the SNP claimed to be former Labour voters.”
This pattern — combining a nationalist core with issue‑driven converts — remains a defining feature of SNP electoral behaviour across the archive.
Electoral Support and Voter Profile
1. The 1988 Govan By‑Election: A Turning Point
The Govan exit poll shows the SNP winning 49% of the vote (NOP predicted 51%). The swing was driven by:
- Labour defections
- Younger voters concerned about the Poll Tax
- Voters responding to candidate personality (Sillars vs. Gillespie)
The archive notes: “Sillars voters… seem much more influenced by the personalities of the candidates… bearing out the general view that Sillars was a fairly strong — and Gillespie a fairly weak — candidate.”
This is an early example of the SNP’s ability to combine nationalist sentiment with anti‑Westminster protest voting.
2. Issue‑Based Support
Across the 1988–2012 archive, SNP support consistently correlates with:
- Opposition to UK‑wide policies (Poll Tax, welfare changes)
- Perceived under‑representation of Scotland at Westminster
- Positive evaluations of SNP leadership (Salmond era)
- Support for greater Scottish autonomy or independence
In 1988, Poll Tax was the second most important determinant of SNP voting (27% of SNP voters cited it).
By 2012, MORI polling shows 62% of SNP voters supporting independence, compared with 15% of Labour voters.
Attitudes to Independence and Constitutional Change
The archive provides a rare longitudinal view of independence sentiment:
1988 (NOP Review)
Support for full independence was 26% among SNP voters, down from 34% at the 1987 general election — evidence of “dilution” by tactical voters. The report states: “Only 26% of the SNP’s own supporters want complete independence compared to 34% at the General Election… indicating a marked ‘dilution’ of core SNP support by floating voters.”
2008–2012 (MORI/TNS)
Support fluctuates but shows a clear pattern:
- 2008–09: Independence support often around 35–41%
- 2011–12: Support typically 28–37%, with higher support among men and SNP voters
- Devo‑max consistently outpolls independence, with around 30–41% preferring increased powers within the UK
A 2012 MORI poll shows:
- 28% Yes
- 52% No
- 19% Undecided
This demonstrates that independence sentiment is not identical to SNP support — a crucial point for AQA students analysing nationalism vs. party politics.
Leadership and Party Image
The archive contains detailed MORI leader satisfaction data for Alex Salmond, showing consistently high ratings:
- 2009–2012 satisfaction typically 49–62%
- Dissatisfaction usually 35–40%
For example, in December 2011 Salmond recorded 62% satisfied, 27% dissatisfied.
Strong leadership ratings correlate with:
- Higher SNP voting intention
- Higher independence support
- Higher turnout likelihood among SNP voters (often 74–76%)
This reinforces the AQA theme of leadership as a driver of electoral behaviour.
Policy Themes in the Archive
Across all documents, SNP voters consistently prioritise:
1. Scotland’s Interests and Representation
In 1988, 32% of voters said the most important factor was choosing “the best party for Scotland.” Among core SNP voters this rose to 45%.
2. Opposition to UK Government Policy
Poll Tax, welfare changes, and dissatisfaction with Labour MPs’ performance were major drivers of SNP support.
3. Constitutional Change
Support for independence varies, but support for greater powers is consistently high (often 58–61%)
4. Public Services and Taxation
By 2012, SNP voters strongly supported:
- Funding Scottish public services through taxation (83%)
- Higher taxes on the wealthy (83%)
These themes align with the party’s modern social‑democratic positioning.
Turnout and Voting Behaviour
The archive shows SNP supporters as high‑turnout voters:
- 76% “absolutely certain to vote” (MORI 2012)
- Higher turnout likelihood than Labour or Lib Dem voters
This is important for AQA students analysing electoral outcomes in Scotland.
Summary: What the Archive Shows About the SNP
Across 25 years of polling and political analysis, the archive reveals:
- A party capable of rapid growth through Labour defections
- A core nationalist base supplemented by issue‑driven tactical voters
- Strong leadership effects, especially under Alex Salmond
- Independence sentiment that fluctuates and is not identical to SNP vote share
- Consistent support for greater Scottish autonomy
- High turnout among SNP supporters
- A long‑term pattern of anti‑Westminster sentiment driving support
This makes the SNP a rich case study for students examining nationalism, devolution, electoral behaviour, and party competition in Scotland.
Links to Reports
Polls on Scotland, 2005-2012 – Page 1 – Opinion Poll Reports – The AMSR Online Archive
Prepared by Phyllis Macfarlane with help from CoPilot
2026