Prepared by AMSR using the Archive
Referendum Case Studies
These General Election and Referendum case study cards have been prepared for AQA A-Level Students from AMSR NOP and MORI reports on the Elections, produced at the time, plus 2 detailed analyses of the AMSR Archive Content produced by AMSR Volunteers: “Polling in UK Elections Since 1945” (focussed on Voting Behaviour and the Media) & “Why Polls Go Wrong”. Please read the Technical Appendix at the end of this document for an explanation of the AMSR Archive, why this resource does not cover all elections, and how we have reported the others. And links to the 2 in-depth documents, other links are included in the text below.
1975 EEC Referendum — “Yes” to Europe
Wider Context
- Europe a major issue since 1960s.
- Leadership effects (Wilson’s renegotiation).
- Volatile public opinion.
Campaign Techniques
- Heavy media use of polls.
- Issue framing: sovereignty vs economic benefit.
Issue Salience
- Economic stability; trade; national identity.
Polling & Media
- Polls widely reported; public exposure rising.
Outcome
- Strong “Yes” vote.
1997 Scottish & Welsh devolution referendums — Establishing new institutions
Wider Context
After Labour’s 1997 General Election landslide, the new government moved quickly to deliver on its manifesto commitment to devolve power to Scotland and Wales. Public debate focused on national identity, democratic accountability, and the future shape of the UK.
The MORI newsletter shows that media reporting of public opinion was often misleading, especially in Scotland, where journalists misinterpreted poll percentages including “don’t knows”.
Campaign Techniques
Campaigning was relatively low-key compared with general elections. In Scotland, the “Yes–Yes” campaign (Parliament + tax-varying powers) was well-organised and strongly supported by civic groups. In Wales, the campaign was more evenly balanced, with narrower public enthusiasm.
MORI Scotland conducted telephone polling shortly before the vote; MORI GB conducted face-to-face surveys on attitudes across Britain.
Issue Salience
Key issues included:
- national identity
- democratic accountability
- taxation powers (Scotland only)
- representation at Westminster
- the future of the Union
Across Great Britain, MORI found majority support for a Scottish Parliament and for reducing Scottish MPs at Westminster if devolution occurred.
Polling & Media
The MORI newsletter is explicit:
“None of the polls suggested the final result of either ballot would be close… all the misleading that took place was based on misreporting.”
In Scotland, MORI found:
- 75% (of those with an opinion) supported a Scottish Parliament
- 61% supported tax-varying powers
The referendum results were 74% and 63%, respectively — almost identical.
In Wales, MORI did not poll, but noted that media reporting of other companies’ polls was “even worse”.
Outcome
Scotland (11 September 1997)
- Yes to a Scottish Parliament: 74%
- Yes to tax-varying powers: 63%
- Turnout: 60%
Wales (18 September 1997)
- Yes to a Welsh Assembly:3%
- Turnout: 50%
The Scottish result was decisive; the Welsh result was extremely close.
Both referendums led to the creation of the Scottish Parliament and the National Assembly for Wales (now Senedd Cymru).
Key AMSR Insights
- Polls were accurate: MORI’s Scottish findings matched the referendum results almost exactly.
- Media misreporting created false narratives of uncertainty or surprise.
- Don’t knows don’t vote: including them in headline figures misled journalists.
- Public support was stronger in Scotland than Wales, reflecting long-standing differences in national identity and political culture.
- Devolution marked a major constitutional shift, reshaping UK governance and setting the stage for later debates on independence.
See also section on 3.1.1.5 Devolution Section for other detail
2011 AV Referendum — Electoral reform rejected
Wider Context
- Coalition government; constitutional reform debate.
Campaign Techniques
- Issue framing: fairness vs complexity.
Issue Salience
- Electoral system; trust.
Polling & Media
- Polling challenges similar to multi-party elections.
Outcome
- AV rejected.
2012 – 2014 Scottish Independence Polling — Pre-referendum attitudes
Link: Polls on Scotland, 2005-2012 – Page 1 – Opinion Poll Reports – The AMSR Online Archive ( MORI & TNS-BMRB polling, 2012)
Polls: voting intentions and related issues of public interest 2014 – Page 50 – Opinion Poll Reports – The AMSR Online Archive (Lord Ashcroft poll interviewed 2,047 Scottish respondents (who had voted in the referendum) between 18-19 September, 2014 (i.e. throughout polling day and the day after).
Pre Referendum attitudes:
Wider Context
In 2012, Scotland was two years away from the 2014 independence referendum. Public debate centred on independence, “devo-max”, and the future distribution of powers between Holyrood and Westminster.
Key Findings (MORI, Oct 2012)
- Support for independence: 28%
- Opposition: 52%
- Undecided: 19%
Support was highest among SNP voters (62%) and lowest among Conservatives (7%). Women were more likely to oppose independence (55%) than men (50%).
Voting Likelihood
Turnout intention was very high: 77–78% rated themselves “10/10 absolutely certain to vote”.
Devo-Max Option
When offered a third option (“more powers within the UK”), support for full independence fell sharply to around 26–30%, with 30–33% preferring increased powers instead.
Economic & Personal Expectations
Most Scots expected independence to worsen Scotland’s economic conditions (45%) and their personal finances (36%).
Constitutional Preferences
Across multiple polls, the most common preference was remaining in the UK with increased powers rather than full independence or the status quo.
Here is a clean, very short AQA-ready summary of the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum, using:
- the recall questions you identified (“Did you vote?” / “How did you vote?”)
- the official certified result
- the 2012–2014 polling context
- the December 2014 MORI archive you uploaded
2014 Scottish Independence Referendum
Lord Ashcroft poll interviewed 2,047 Scottish respondents (who had voted in the referendum) between 18-19 September, 2014 (i.e. throughout polling day and the day after).
Wider Context
The referendum followed two years of intense debate on Scotland’s constitutional future. Key issues included economic security, currency, EU membership, welfare, and national identity. Turnout was exceptionally high.
Polling & Media
Pre-referendum polling in 2012–14 showed a stable No lead, with occasional tightening. Your December 2014 MORI archive includes post-referendum recall questions:
“Did you vote in the referendum?” “How did you vote?”
Self-reported turnout was very high (consistent with the official 84.6% turnout). Recall of Yes/No voting broadly matched the final result.
Official Certified Result
- Yes (independence): 44.7%
- No (remain in the UK): 55.3%
- Turnout: 84.6% — the highest in any UK-wide vote since universal suffrage.
Voting Behaviour (from your MORI recall data)
- High self-reported participation.
- Post-referendum recall aligned with the official No majority.
- SNP identifiers were the strongest Yes group; Conservative identifiers overwhelmingly No.
- Women were more likely to recall voting No; men more evenly split.
- Economic expectations strongly shaped voting: most believed independence would worsen Scotland’s economy.
Outcome
Scotland voted to remain in the United Kingdom. The result triggered further devolution (“Smith Commission”) and reshaped Scottish politics, contributing to the SNP surge in the 2015 General Election.
Key AMSR-Style Insights
- Turnout certainty was extremely high — a classic feature of constitutional referendums.
- Recall polling (Dec 2014) showed stable post-referendum attitudes.
- Issue salience (economy, currency, EU membership) dominated voter decision-making.
- Poll accuracy: final polls were close to the result, with no major polling failure.
- Behavioural stability: most voters reported they would vote the same way again.
2016 EU Referendum — Leave wins
Wider Context
- Europe central issue; immigration; sovereignty.
Campaign Techniques
- Heavy use of polls; expectations management.
Issue Salience
- Economy; identity; borders.
Polling & Media
Source: Why Polls Go Wrong
- Expectations failure.
- Shy voter effects.
- Turnout uncertainty.
- Late swings.
- Methodological debates (online vs phone).
Outcome
- Leave won; polls struggled to capture final movement.
Technical Appendix
About the Archive (AMSR)
The Archive of Market and Social Research (AMSR) preserves the original reports, surveys, and polling data produced by Britain’s major research organisations from the 1940s onwards, offering an unparalleled record of how public opinion was measured, reported, and understood at the time. Because the Archive contains the contemporarydocuments — Gallup, NOP, MORI, and others — it shows elections, referendums, and polling debates exactly as they were experienced, without hindsight or reinterpretation. This makes AMSR uniquely valuable for A-Level Politics: students can see how campaigns unfolded, how issues rose and fell in importance, how voters behaved, and how polls influenced expectations. The Archive also reveals why polls sometimes go wrong, how methods evolved, and how media reporting shaped political understanding. In short, AMSR provides the evidence base that allows students to evaluate elections, referendums, voting behaviour, and the reliability of political information using authentic historical sources.
Why AMSR does not cover all Elections
This AMSR teaching resource draws on two archive documents: Polling in UK Elections Since 1945 (which isfocussed on Voting Behaviour and the Media) and Why Polls Go Wrong. These sources provide detailed historical context, polling evidence, and campaign analysis for UK General Elections from 1945 to 2015 studies. Since these documents were produced the Archive does have a complete summary of the 2024 Election prepared by Ipsos especially for the Archive. To maintain academic accuracy and ensure all content is grounded in verifiable AMSR evidence, this resource therefore covers uses AMSR sources for elections where we have them and uses publiclyavailable Ipsos, BES, BBC/ITV exit-poll findings, and ONS turnout statistics in other cases. This is always clearly stated in the introduction to the particular Election/Referendum
Source:
Source: AMSR, Researching the Public: Post-War Policy, Politics and Polling, “Referendums: How Do Voters Decide?” Sir John Curtice Referendums: how do voters decide? – Page 3 – Research History – The AMSR Online Archive
Prepared by Phyllis Macfarlane with help from CoPilot
2026