The leading polling organisations have not so far published any poll covering what the public expect to be in the budget to be delivered on 30th October 2024. Perhaps they haven’t needed to, as plenty of commentators have prepared us for the worst. Indeed, the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, has already said it will be ‘painful’.
Such negative expectations will mostly be nothing new: looking in the many relevant AMSR files at some of the previous years and their budgets we can say:
- In July 1997 when, much as today, there was an incoming Labour Government we find in British Public Opinion a report on a Gallup survey that most voters expected the tax burden to be increased by Gordon Brown’s first budget. Almost three-quarters of adults (72%) said they expected Mr Brown to put up taxes, but of these 81 % said they expected the rise to be only “a little”, while 17% expected them to go up “a lot”. Only 48% said they would approve of a tax-raising budget, while 45% would not. Asked which taxes they would prefer to see increased, the majority preferred taxes on “things that people spend their money on, like alcohol, tobacco and petrol” (63%) to “taxes on people’s incomes (32%).
- Going further back, in the NOP Political Bulletin of April 1969, with Labour’s Roy Jenkins as Chancellor, we find 65% thought the government were making a bad job of managing our economic affairs while 23% thought it was doing a good job. Nevertheless, in this situation, 75% said they would like to see no tough measures in the budget, and when asked “Do you think it necessary for the government to introduce tougher measures in the coming budget, or leave things as they are?” only 17% said yes to tougher measure while 73% wanted things to be left as they are. If tough measures were to be introduced, what did people most want to see? Their leading answers were:
- A year later, in the NOP Poll of March 1970 when Roy Jenkins was still Chancellor, adults across Britain were asked ‘What sort of budget do you expect this year – do you expect it to be…
- Then the British Public Opinion issue of March 1986, ahead of Nigel Lawson’s third budget, contained a report that a recent January 1986 MORI poll showed 24% thought Britain’s economic condition would improve in the next 12 months while 33% thought it would get worse.
- In the British Public Opinion issue of two years later, we find cynicism and pessimism combined in the results from the MORI Poll of April 1988, with most (77%) expecting the budget that year to “make the rich richer.” And 68% were in favour of a cut in the basic rate of income tax (not likely to happen in 2024!)
However reactions after each budget mostly show that its actual provisions tend to be less painful than expected:
- In NOP’s Political Bulletin for April 1963, reactions to Reginald Maudling’s budget were that 59% were pleased by it while 31% were disappointed. Even though 43% thought it was “an election budget”, we see from another question that 57% accepted it was primarily designed to meet the economic situation of the country while only 33% disagreed.
- Then in the NOP Political Bulletin of April 1970, people were asked in relation to Roy Jenkins’ budget ‘What did you think of the budget as far as the country is concerned, and for you?’
- Again, in British Public Opinion after Nigel Lawson’s third budget, in 1986, MORI found his budget proposals were:
- In British Public Opinion March 1998, MORI showed that Gordon Brown’s second budget was well received with 57% saying it was ‘a good thing for the country’ and only 22% saying it was bad.
- And in British Public Opinion for March/April 2001, while 42% thought Gordon Brown’s budget would be good for them personally and only 30% thought it would be bad; and it was claimed that “this was the first budget to record a positive score since Nigel Lawson’s in 1989, with 52% thinking it would be good for the country.”
Bringing us much more up-to-date, six months ago YouGov provided us with reactions to the Jeremy Hunt’s Spring 2024 budget, finding that 73% thought the freeze on petrol tax was a good idea and 72% thought similarly of the new tax on vapes. But by only 43% to 40% did they approve of the freezing of the tax on alcoholic drinks*.
But much as they might say now, only 4% thought the economy was in a good state overall, while 71% thought it was not. ‘Plus ça change!’
Links to sources in the Archive of Market and Social Research:
MORI British Public Opinion July 1997: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/MORI-BPO/id/617/rec/7
NOP Political Bulletin April 1969: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/NOP_Reports/id/1993/rec/1
NOP Bulletin March 1970: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/NOP_Reports/id/2312/rec/10
MORI British Public Opinion March 1986: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/MORI-BPO/id/765/rec/7
MORI British Public Opinion April 1988: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/MORI-BPO/id/1746/rec/2
NOP Political Bulletin April 1963: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/NOP_Reports/id/1377/rec/3
NOP Political Bulletin April 1970: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/NOP_Reports/id/2291/rec/4
MORI British Public Opinion March 1986: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/MORI-BPO/id/771/rec/1
MORI British Public Opinion March 1998: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/MORI-BPO/id/859/rec/3
MORI British Public Opinion March/April 2001: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/MORI-BPO/id/1347/rec/2
* This source is not held in the Archive but is quoted for editorial relevance.
Contributed by Peter Bartram
Date posted: 18th October 2024.