Prepared by AMSR using the Archive
Wales: Dual identity, gradualist devolution and community- centred politics
Wales followed a more incremental constitutional path than Scotland, shaped by a distinctive combination of dual identity, community-based political culture, and moderate but stable support for devolution. Across AMSR sources — NOP 1989, MORI/JRRT 1995, and MORI/Economist 1999 — Welsh attitudes appear pragmatic, locally rooted, and responsive to developments elsewhere in the UK.
1. Identity and political culture: Wales’s distinctive foundations
AMSR polling shows that Welsh identity is stable but dual: many people identify as both Welsh and British. This dual identity produced a political culture that was:
- community-centred (language, local governance, cultural institutions)
- less constitutionally mobilised than Scotland
- focused on practical local control rather than symbolic national autonomy
This helps explain why Welsh devolution developed steadily rather than dramatically.
2. Support for devolution: Moderate, conditional and growing
MORI/JRRT 1995: Majority support, but gradualist
The 1995 MORI/Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust survey shows:
- majority support for a Welsh Assembly
- support for constitutional reform
- preference for greater local control over public services
But support lacked the intensity seen in Scotland. Welsh respondents tended to favour incremental change, reflecting a political culture that valued stability and community governance.
NOP 1989: Conditional support and the “me too” effect
The 1989 NOP Wales-wide survey adds crucial depth:
- 49% favoured an elected Welsh Assembly
- 34% opposed
- Support rose to 58% if Scotland gained an Assembly first (“me too” effect)
- Support strongest among Welsh speakers (61%) and younger voters (65% of 18–34s)
This is powerful evidence that Welsh support for devolution was conditional, context-dependent, and responsive to developments elsewhere in the UK.
3. Regional variation: Wales is not politically uniform
The 1989 NOP survey reveals striking regional differences:
- North Wales
- Plaid Cymru: 29%
- Labour: 34%
- Welsh speakers: 57%
- Assembly support: 56%
- South Wales
- Labour: 57%
- Plaid Cymru: 8%
- Welsh speakers: 17%
- Mid/West Wales
- Labour: 33%
- Conservatives: 32%
- SLD: 12%
These differences show that Welsh constitutional preferences were shaped by language, regional identity, and local political cultures, not by a single national movement.
4. Language and constitutional attitudes: A strong predictor
The 1989 NOP survey provides robust quantitative evidence linking Welsh language to constitutional preferences:
- 15% speak Welsh fluently
- 15% speak “a little”
- 53% of Plaid voters speak Welsh
Welsh speakers strongly favour devolution:
- 61% support an Assembly
- 68% support an Assembly under the “me too” scenario
Language is therefore a major driver of Welsh constitutional attitudes — far more so than in England, and differently from Scotland.
5. Devolution salience: Low compared with Scotland
In the Pontypridd by-election (1989):
- Devolution was the most important issue for only 1% of voters
- Even among Plaid voters, only 7% named it as their top issue
This is crucial: Welsh devolution was not a high-salience issue. It did not drive electoral behaviour. It was gradualist, pragmatic, and low-intensity — unlike Scotland, where constitutional questions were consistently salient.
6. The “Special Case” argument: Wales’s preferred path
The 1989 NOP survey asked whether Wales should:
- be part of UK-wide devolution including English regions, or
- be treated as a separate special case with devolution implemented sooner.
Results:
- 52% favoured treating Wales as a special case
- Only 25% favoured UK-wide devolution
- Support for “special case” rose to 69% among Plaid voters
- Even Labour voters favoured “special case” (58%)
This shows that Wales did not simply want to follow Scotland — it wanted its own path, but gradually.
7. Attitudes to English regional devolution (MORI/Economist 1999)
The 1999 MORI/Economist survey adds a comparative dimension:
- 36% of Welsh respondents supported giving greater powers to English regions
- 39% opposed
This contrasts with Scotland, where 49% opposed English regional devolution.
This suggests that Wales viewed English regional devolution as less threatening to its own constitutional position than Scotland did — consistent with Wales’s more moderate, less defensive constitutional culture.
8. Trust and pragmatism: The Valleys initiative (NOP 1989)
The 1989 NOP survey shows moderate trust in government initiatives:
- 47% believed the Valleys Initiative would be effective
- Only 31% thought it would not be effective
- Even among Labour voters, 45% believed it would be effective
This reinforces the picture of a pragmatic, community-focused political culture, not one driven by constitutional confrontation.
9. Why Welsh devolution developed differently
AMSR evidence shows three core reasons:
- Dual identity Welsh identity coexists comfortably with British identity, reducing pressure for radical constitutional change.
- Community-based political culture Language, local governance and cultural institutions shaped attitudes more than national constitutional mobilisation.
- Preference for incremental change Support for devolution grew steadily, producing a Parliament through gradual expansion rather than a single decisive moment.
10. Constitutional impact
Wales developed a devolved legislature through steady, moderate support, not through the high-salience mobilisation seen in Scotland. Its constitutional trajectory reflects a political culture that values community, continuity and incremental reform.
Archive citations:
MORI/Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust Survey, May 1995 British Public Opinion Issue 18.04 1995 June – Page 1 – MORI British Public Opinion – The AMSR Online Archive
MORI British Public Opinion Newsletter, April 1999 British Public Opinion Issue 22.03 1999 April – Page 3 – MORI British Public Opinion – The AMSR Online Archive
Prepared by Phyllis Macfarlane with help from CoPilot
2026