Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election, expected to be swiftly followed by his unopposed elevation to leadership of the Labour party and thus Prime Minister, prompts an examination of past polling results to see how his stock has risen.
Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election, expected to be swiftly followed by his unopposed elevation to leadership of the Labour party and thus Prime Minister, prompts an examination of past polling results to see how his stock has risen.
In his earlier career he had been MP for Leigh in the Manchester area from 2001 to 2017, and under Blair and Brown was Culture Secretary and then Secretary of State for Health. After Labour lost power in 2010, he was a member of the Shadow Cabinet until 2016, during which time he twice stood for the leadership of the Labour party – coming fourth in 2010 and then, in August 2015, coming second to Jeremy Corbyn.
Just before that 2015 leadership vote, a YouGov poll was conducted among 1411 eligible voters, on 6-10 August 2015. This poll, now available in the Archive, accurately anticipated the actual result, showing Jeremy Corbyn (53%) followed a long way behind by Andy Burnham (21%), Yvette Cooper (18%) and Liz Kendall (8%).
However, three questions were asked in a 21-23 August 2015 nationwide poll by ComRes for the Daily Mail, when the results were not yet known. This survey, again held in the Archive, was based on 1001 adults:
Q: Thinking about candidates to be leader of the Labour Party, would you vote Labour if … was the leader?
Q: Do you agree or disagree that … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?
After losing the leadership election, Andy Burnham absconded to become Mayor of Manchester and nationwide polls largely lost interest in him until he resurfaced in Makerfield.
Those 2015 polls nevertheless showed that he was a leading potential candidate for future Prime Minister – albeit in a crowded field. It now remains to be seen how he will actually perform in the role.
References:
YouGov 2015: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/Conf-other/id/12029/rec/1
ComRes/Daily Mail 2015: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/p21050coll1/id/1678/rec/2
Contributed by Peter Bartram
Date posted: 13th July 2026
Photo: Euan Cherry/Shutterstock