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Referendums and constitutional change: Insights from AMSR evidence
AMSR evidence on referendum behaviour shows that constitutional change in the UK depends not only on institutional design but on the electorate’s ability to link arguments to outcomes. The AMSR article “Referendums: How Do Voters Decide?” by Sir John Curtice, demonstrates that when referendums are high-salience—such as the 2014 Scottish independence vote—citizens’ choices closely reflect their substantive views on the issues at stake.
In the Scottish case, 93% of those who believed independence would strengthen the economy intended to vote “yes”, while 94% of those who believed it would weaken the economy intended to vote “no”. The article also shows that when voters change their minds about key arguments during a campaign, they often change their intended vote, indicating genuine deliberation rather than simple partisan cue-taking.
By contrast, low-salience referendums—such as the 2011 Alternative Vote ballot—show weaker links between arguments and voting behaviour. This pattern helps explain why devolution succeeded in Scotland and Wales in 1997: constitutional questions were salient, identity-linked, and widely understood.
It also helps explain why England never developed a comparable devolution movement: without strong identity mobilisation or high-salience constitutional debate, public engagement remained limited. The AMSR referendum evidence therefore reinforces the broader conclusion of the devolution analysis: constitutional change in the UK emerges when public mobilisation, identity, and perceived substantive stakes align.
“Curtice’s findings explain why Scottish and Welsh devolution succeeded: high salience, identity mobilisation, and argument-linked voting. Whereas England never developed a comparable devolution movement because it lacked identity mobilisation, high-salience constitutional debate and clear perceived stakes”
Source:
Source: AMSR, Researching the Public: Post-War Policy, Politics and Polling, “Referendums: How Do Voters Decide?” Sir John Curtice Referendums: how do voters decide? – Page 3 – Research History – The AMSR Online Archive
Prepared by Phyllis Macfarlane with help from CoPilot
2026