Surveying Britain’s relations with the EU and the USA

The ongoing news coverage of the tensions and disagreements in transatlantic relations – over issues such as resolving the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the distribution of burden-sharing for Europe’s security and the Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda – have raised historically-resonant themes around Britain’s ability to exert influence over and between Europe and the USA and how its position in these alliances affect its foreign policy.

 These themes have been important areas of focus for polling in post-war Britain. Given Britain’s declining international role and status in the post-war period and growing political debate over the merits of joining the Common Market, pollsters wanted to know what the British public’s views were on these issues. The polling collections on the AMSR website provide some fascinating data on opinion towards Britain’s major international alliances, both topline and among societal groups.

As Britain’s politicians and ordinary people debated pros and cons of the joining the Common Market, NOP asked which of the country’s three main relationships – European, the USA or the Commonwealth – was most important for the country’s future. This theme was also prominent in the 2016 Brext referendum debate: for if Britain was to leave the EU did it need to choose between strengthening political and economic ties with the USA or with the Commonwealth?

For example, we can see that, between 1969-71, public opinion did not show a majority preference for any one of these relationships, but rather there were broadly similar levels of support for the Commonwealth and Europe, with much less backing for the USA. Plenty of those polled either did not select any of these allies or were unsure.

Question: ‘Do you think that the future of Britain rests mainly with the Commonwealth, with the U.S.A., with Europe, or with none of these?’

Source: https://amsr.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/NOP_Reports/id/2650/rec/18

The NOP Monthly Bulletin from July 1971 also reports on the specific reasons given by the public for being in favour or against joining the Common Market. It makes for interesting reading to compare with the arguments – concerning political and economic themes – of the opposing sides in the Brexit campaign during and after the June 2016 referendum. We can see that economic motivations were particularly important for both approving and disapproving of Britain joining (and no doubt, given the country’s difficulties at the time, influenced many of those who voted in remain in the 1975 membership referendum after Britain had joined in 1873).

The monthly bulletin from November 1969 shows preferences for the Commonwealth, Europe or USA within different social groups, another area where interesting comparisons can be made with the patterns of group support for leaving or remaining in the EU more recently. It we look at preferences by age group, older people were more likely to prefer the Commonwealth than were younger people, who showed greater backing for a European future. We know that there was a marked age-related divided in the 2016 Brexit referendum, but such differences also seem to be present in the period before membership. The proportion choosing the USA was much lower across all age groups.

Question: ‘Do you think that the future of Britain rests mainly with the Commonwealth, with the U.S.A., with Europe, or with none of these?’

The MORI collection at the AMSR also provide fascinating data on the transatlantic tensions that were engendered by the foreign policy of the George Bush administration after the 9/11 attacks, most prominently the build up to and occurrence of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, which involved divisive arguments between countries and within societies, including in Britain. For example, a MORI opinion poll conducted in June 2002 – reported in this public opinion newsletter for 2002-03 – shows the results of a wide-ranging focus on ‘European and American views on terrorism, 9/11, and US policy’.

This highlights that some polls in the AMSR allow comparison of public opinion in Britain with other countries, which can be very useful for topics concerning potential or actual foreign policy actions and issues of a global nature. We can see that 56% of public opinion in Britain thought that ‘The European Union should become a superpower, like the US’, which was much lower than the proportion in France (91%) or Italy (76%), but higher than in Germany (48%) and similar to that in the Netherlands (59%). Of those who did back the EU becoming a superpower, the largest share of opinion in each country backed military expenditure increasing to enable this to happen. What would be the pattern of opinion across these countries if similar questions – the EU becoming a superpower; increasing military spending – were posed in the current climate of transatlantic discord?

On specific aspects of Britain’s relations with the USA and the EU, the AMSR also holds important material compiling public opinion data over time from different polling organisations. For example, there was a lot of coverage in opinion polling of views towards Britain’s involvement in the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. Changes in attitudes over time can be examined with the data collected for polls on Afghanistan between 2006-10 and on Iraq for 2001-10. Assessment of trends in attitudes in Britain towards the European Union and the Single Currency can also be undertaken using compilations of data from different polling companies.